{"id":156996,"date":"2025-03-19T06:00:14","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T06:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/?p=156996"},"modified":"2025-03-19T08:42:49","modified_gmt":"2025-03-19T08:42:49","slug":"5-expert-tips-a-professionals-guide-to-weather-routing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/5-tips\/5-expert-tips-a-professionals-guide-to-weather-routing-156996","title":{"rendered":"5 expert tips: A professional&#8217;s guide to weather routing"},"content":"Whether you\u2019re preparing for a race or even just a leg of a longer race, there\u2019s always a process for planning your routing, says Si Fi. \u201cI\u2019ll start looking at the forecast and the different weather models about five to six days out from the start. It\u2019s vital to do some wide-ranging research, taking a look at the overall weather pattern and where the models agree or disagree, but it\u2019s also important not to get to the point of paralysis by analysis.\u201d\r\n\r\nHe uses a range of technology to plan the routing, but advises a KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) approach. \u201cMost of what I do is based around Expedition and Adrena. I think one or the other will serve most people\u2019s needs very well. Ultimately it is better to know the tools you\u2019re using well as opposed to trying to use every software tool available.\u201d\r\n\r\nThe ever-accelerating advance of AI will doubtless revolutionise weather routing at some point but he warns of becoming too reliant on the latest technology as good seamanship and sailing skill will still often trump the technology.\r\n\r\nFisher still has the skills to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/practical-cruising\/celestial-navigation-sailing-following-stars-127812\">navigate with sextant<\/a> and stars, although he admits: \u201cI haven\u2019t tried it on the new generation of high-speed foilers like the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/tag\/imoca-60\">IMOCA<\/a>. I suspect trying to get a steady reading while you\u2019re bouncing along at 25 knots could be quite challenging!\u201d he laughs.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_156691\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]<img class=\"size-large wp-image-156691\" src=\"https:\/\/keyassets.timeincuk.net\/inspirewp\/live\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/02\/YAW306.FEAT_VendeeSpeed.vg2024_2410081857_ronangladu_disobey_macif_0214_haute_definition_copy-630x354.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"354\" \/> The latest generation IMOCA 60s are probably a bit too quick for celestial navigation[\/caption]\r\n<h2>Choose weather models<\/h2>\r\nThere\u2019s a huge range of weather models, but the two main ones for the global stuff are the EC (European) model, and the GFS (American) model. Then there are the UK and French models to consider too. These are the best models for looking at routing when you\u2019re well offshore, but when you get closer to shore, and closer to race start day, there\u2019s a whole range of higher resolution local models worth looking at.\r\n\r\nMost people tend to lean on the EC and the GFS models because they\u2019re the most available and relevant over a period of longer than 24 hours. GFS is completely free and runs four times a day. The EC also runs four times a day but is typically available to download only twice a day.\r\n\r\nI\u2019d normally use these two models initially to understand how the weather is working and the main features in play. Then in the last 24 hours before a start I\u2019ll look to the higher resolution models for more detail and fine tuning of the strategy.\r\n\r\n<em>Article continues below...<\/em>\r\n\r\n[coolletion]\r\n<h2>Do the models agree?<\/h2>\r\nWhen you\u2019re preparing for a race, look closely at what the different models are saying. How much do they agree or disagree? If you\u2019re five days out and each model has multiple different answers, you can be pretty confident the forecast is going to change significantly in the coming days. But that uncertainty can be useful in determining what to focus on.\r\n\r\nIn the days preceding a race I run different models through routing software to see how the answer changes both from run to run and also day to day. Is one model trending towards another, or are they converging on the same answer? You can be most confident where all the models agree, but if they aren\u2019t in agreement you can often draw a little more confidence from the model which is moving the least from day to day. Consistency can often indicate more accuracy for that particular scenario.\r\n<h2>Ensemble modelling<\/h2>\r\nEnsemble modelling is another useful weapon to have in your armoury, particularly for ocean races. GFS and EC have ensemble forecasts where they start with an initial \u2018control\u2019 model, and then tweak the initial conditions very slightly. What you end up with is 30 different model forecasts in the case of the GFS, or 50 in the case of the EC.\r\n\r\nIt\u2019s a useful tool to see when and where the forecast diverges over time. Running multiple routes, and seeing how tightly packed or spread out the routes are, provides valuable insight into how many strategic options are possible and how consistent the deterministic forecasts are likely to be.\r\n\r\nOften you\u2019ll see one or two groups of tightly packed routes, which gives an idea of where the most likely options are going to be. Where the ensemble forecasts or associated routes descend into chaos after a certain number of days will at the very least tell you things are going to change and that you\u2019ll need to keep your options open and not be too radical.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_145892\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]<img class=\"size-large wp-image-145892\" src=\"https:\/\/keyassets.timeincuk.net\/inspirewp\/live\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2023\/05\/YAW286.FEAT_ocean_race_long.14_03_230402_amr_11hrt_0912-630x355.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"355\" \/> 11th Hour Racing team huddles around the navstation for a look at the latest weather picture in The Ocean Race. Photo: Amory Ross\/11th Hour Racing\/The Ocean Race[\/caption]\r\n<h2>Talk it through<\/h2>\r\nBesides looking at scenarios in more than one way, at a human level it\u2019s always good to discuss routing with a wider group of people. On <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/tag\/the-ocean-race\">The Ocean Race<\/a> programme, we tend to work with a bigger team on the shore side, with assistance from professional meteorologists and other navigators.\r\n\r\nBut there\u2019s always a certain amount of chat between the guys in the race \u2013 whether it\u2019s your teammates or rivals \u2013 because you\u2019re all in a similar position. Of course at some level everyone wants to keep their cards close to their chest, but it\u2019s good to share ideas and get a feel for what other people might be looking at or worrying about.\r\n<h2>Manage your risk<\/h2>\r\nGood routing comes down in large part to good risk management. A big part of that is how much risk you place on the weather forecast or a routing option, versus what the rest of the fleet is doing. It\u2019s a strategy versus tactics trade-off.\r\n\r\nSome decisions and routing options might give you a big win if they work out, but if they don\u2019t then you lose everything. There\u2019s often a safer option, or one where you can cover the fleet better. Very often it\u2019s prudent in races to give up a few miles if you\u2019re ahead, to make sure the fleet can\u2019t get past you.\r\n\r\nI can\u2019t stress enough how important it is to always keep your head out of the boat when you\u2019re on the race course. You always need to be prepared to modify your strategy based on what\u2019s going on around you, whether it\u2019s the weather, your boat\u2019s performance or your competitors. The race winning strategy will have to factor in all those things.\r\n\r\n<hr \/>\r\n\r\n<h2><a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/2JMgfA4\"><img class=\"alignright wp-image-120951 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/keyassets.timeincuk.net\/inspirewp\/live\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2019\/05\/YW_JUNE19_-COVER-1-152x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"152\" height=\"200\" \/><\/a>If you enjoyed this\u2026.<\/h2>\r\n<blockquote>\r\n<div class=\"\"><em>Yachting World is the world's leading magazine for bluewater cruisers and offshore sailors. Every month we have inspirational adventures and practical features to help you realise your sailing dreams.<\/em><\/div>\r\n<div><\/div>\r\n<div class=\"\"><em>Build your knowledge with a subscription delivered to your door. See our <a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/2JMgfA4\">latest offers<\/a> and save at least 30% off the cover price.<\/em><\/div><\/blockquote>\r\n\r\n<hr \/>","excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Whether you\u2019re preparing for a race or even just a leg of a longer race, there\u2019s always a process for planning your routing, says Si Fi. \u201cI\u2019ll start looking at the forecast and the different weather models about five to six days out from the start. It\u2019s vital to do some wide-ranging research, taking a look at the overall weather pattern and where the models agree or disagree, but it\u2019s also important not to get to the point of paralysis by analysis.\u201d He uses a range of technology to plan the routing, but advises a KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) approach. \u201cMost of what I do is based around Expedition and Adrena. I think one or the other will serve most people\u2019s needs very well. Ultimately it is better to know the tools you\u2019re using well as opposed to trying to use every software tool available.\u201d The ever-accelerating advance of AI will doubtless revolutionise weather routing at some point but he warns of becoming too reliant on the latest technology as good seamanship and sailing skill will still often trump the technology. Fisher still has the skills to navigate with sextant and stars, although he admits: \u201cI haven\u2019t tried it on the new generation of high-speed foilers like the IMOCA. I suspect trying to get a steady reading while you\u2019re bouncing along at 25 knots could be quite challenging!\u201d he laughs. Choose weather models There\u2019s a huge range of weather models, but the two main ones for the global stuff are the EC (European) model, and the GFS (American) model. Then there are the UK and French models to consider too. These are the best models for looking at routing when you\u2019re well offshore, but when you get closer to shore, and closer to race start day, there\u2019s a whole range of higher resolution local models worth looking at. Most people tend to lean on the EC and the GFS models because they\u2019re the most available and relevant over a period of longer than 24 hours. GFS is completely free and runs four times a day. The EC also runs four times a day but is typically available to download only twice a day. I\u2019d normally use these two models initially to understand how the weather is working and the main features in play. Then in the last 24 hours before a start I\u2019ll look to the higher resolution models for more detail and fine tuning of the strategy. Article continues below&#8230; [coolletion] Do the models agree? When you\u2019re preparing for a race, look closely at what the different models are saying. How much do they agree or disagree? If you\u2019re five days out and each model has multiple different answers, you can be pretty confident the forecast is going to change significantly in the coming days. But that uncertainty can be useful in determining what to focus on. In the days preceding a race I run different models through routing software to see how the answer changes both from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/5-tips\/5-expert-tips-a-professionals-guide-to-weather-routing-156996\">&hellip;Continue reading &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5203,"featured_media":156997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[546],"tags":[846,1633],"review_manufacturer":[],"acf":[],"introduction":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156996"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5203"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=156996"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156996\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":156998,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156996\/revisions\/156998"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/156997"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=156996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=156996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=156996"},{"taxonomy":"review_manufacturer","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/review_manufacturer?post=156996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}