{"id":155320,"date":"2024-11-10T14:26:32","date_gmt":"2024-11-10T14:26:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/?p=155320"},"modified":"2024-11-12T08:38:52","modified_gmt":"2024-11-12T08:38:52","slug":"who-will-win-the-2024-vendee-globe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/all-latest-posts\/who-will-win-the-2024-vendee-globe-155320","title":{"rendered":"Who will win the 2024 Vend\u00e9e Globe?"},"content":"So who will win the 2024 Vend\u00e9e Globe<\/a>?\r\n\r\nSpoiler alert: we don\u2019t know\u2028.\r\n\r\nAnd that\u2019s not only because of the Vend\u00e9e Globe\u2019s notorious attrition rate (somewhere between 1 in 4 and 1 in 3 entries are statistically likely to fail to complete the course), but because with this year\u2019s record entry of 40 IMOCAs<\/a> and hugely competitive fleet<\/a>, even the skippers struggle to work out where they rank against each other.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155325\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Eyes on the prize: J\u00e9r\u00e9mie Beyou looks at the Vend\u00e9e Globe trophy as he heads to the start. Photo: Anne Beaug\u00e9 \/ Alea[\/caption]\r\n

How to pick the top IMOCAs<\/h2>\r\n\u201cPreviously in the IMOCA<\/a> class, you just had to have a reasonable boat. The fleets were so small that if you had a reasonable boat and an okay budget, then you were pretty much guaranteed to be in the top five.\r\n\r\n\u201cNow with that, you can just be in the top 20,\u201d explains Sam Davies<\/a>, skipper of Initiatives Coeur<\/em>, ahead of this year\u2019s start.\r\n\r\n\u201cIt's something we've worked on, because it's really hard to know where to expect to be. Sometimes I\u2019d finish a race and I'd feel really happy with the result, and the team would be really frustrated because we weren't all on the same page.\u201d\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155334\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" LORIENT, FRANCE - British skipper Sam Davies on Imoca Initiatives Coeur. Photo by Jean-Louis Carli\/ALeA[\/caption]\r\n\r\nTo help them gauge performance, before every race in the lead up to the Vend\u00e9e Globe, Davies and her team would create a table ranking the boats and skippers against her and her boat.\r\n\r\n\u201cWe have an open debate between us in the team [and score each column] either +1, 0, or -1. One means the boat is better than my boat. Zero, equal. Minus one, I'm better. And we do both boat and skipper because you can have a really good boat with a less experienced skipper. Then you add the two together and that result is one, zero, or minus one.\r\n\r\n\u201cAt the end, you have a group that is better, a group that's equal, and then there's a group that I should be ahead of.\u201d\r\n

40-boat Vend\u00e9e Globe fleet<\/h2>\r\nThe problem is that if you do that exercise for the Vend\u00e9e Globe itself, even once you\u2019ve ranked all the entries into groups, with a huge fleet of 40 boats each \u2018group\u2019 is so large and evenly matched that they\u2019re simply too hard to split.\r\n\r\nRecent transatlantic<\/a> races have been decided by minutes, if not seconds. And that\u2019s with some of the skippers sailing \u2013 relatively \u2013 conservatively in order to secure their Vend\u00e9e Globe qualification miles.\r\n\r\nSo the best we can offer \u2013 and yes, it is a bit of a cop-out \u2013 is to group the fleet. Here\u2019s our best guess at the likely front-runners and races-within-a-race for the 10th edition of the Vend\u00e9e Globe (you can see how well we do on the live tracker<\/a>):\r\n

Winning potential<\/h2>\r\nPicking a winner is a fool\u2019s errand. As J\u00e9r\u00e9mie Beyou pointed out, whilst many people pegged him and Alex Thomson as among the favourites for the last race, both suffered damage which ended their chances. Meanwhile few commentators picked Yannick Bestaven as a winning bet.\r\n\r\nAlso, as Davies explained, the fastest group used to be comprised of four or five boats, but there are now double figures of boats that could be in it.\r\n\r\nSo whilst we\u2019ve picked our top four, if any are forced to retire or have their performance limited by damage, there\u2019s a huge group of other IMOCAs and skippers that could move up.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155328\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Charlie Dalin's Macif is one of the favourites to win the 2024 Vend\u00e9e Globe. Photo: Ronan Gladu \/ Disobey \/ Macif \/ VG2024[\/caption]\r\n\r\nCaveats out of the way, we think the four strongest contenders for line honours are Charlie Dalin<\/a> Macif<\/em><\/strong>, Thomas Ruyant Vulnerable<\/em><\/strong>, J\u00e9r\u00e9nmie Beyou Charal 2<\/em><\/strong>, and Yoann Richomme\u2019s<\/a> Paprec Ark\u00e9a<\/em><\/a><\/strong>.\r\n\r\nOf these Dalin<\/strong> probably has the slight edge. Not only does he have an incredibly well-prepared and optimised boat, but the added factor of having been the skipper to lead the fleet home<\/a> last time around, although he ultimately finished 2nd after redress was awarded for the boats involved in Kevin Escoffier\u2019s rescue<\/a>.\r\n\r\nRichomme<\/strong> might be a Vend\u00e9e first timer but he knows how to perform on the big stage, having twice won La Solitaire du Figaro. Though a newcomer to the IMOCA class, he won his very first two races in the fleet with his Koch\/Finot Conq design. A smart and tough sailor who\u2019s known to push his boat hard. Which means if he doesn\u2019t break anything, he could be right up there.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155332\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Yoann Richomme's Paprec Arkea is a Koch\/Finot Conq design. Photo: Eloi Stichelbaut - polaRYSE \/ Paprec Arkea \/ IMOCA[\/caption]\r\n\r\nRuyant<\/strong><\/a> has closely matched Dalin for much of the past IMOCA cycle, and the pair are still hard to split. He has a fast new Antoine Koch\/Finot Conq design that's a sistership to Richomme, won the major transatlantics in 2021\/22\/23, and was in the top three for much of the last Vend\u00e9e until foil damage slowed him.\r\n\r\nJ\u00e9r\u00e9mie Beyou<\/strong><\/a> is another who has a fearsome amount of experience combined with a latest generation IMOCA that is a regular on the podium. It\u2019s hard to bet against Beyou being in the top three.\r\n

\u2018Top five\u2019 challengers<\/h2>\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155333\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Sam Goodchild is a Vend\u00e9e 'rookie' with a lot of ocean experience. Photo: Pierre Bouras \/ TR Racing \/ IMOCA[\/caption]\r\n\r\nWe\u2019d love to see an English skipper<\/a> like Sam Davies<\/strong> or Sam Goodchild<\/strong> lead the Vend\u00e9e Globe this time around, and they certainly have the potential, but even if not amongst the very front runners we expect them to be part of a strong group of podium or just-off-the-podium contenders.\r\n\r\nBoris Herrmann\u2019s Malizia-SeaExplorer<\/em><\/a><\/strong> has the most miles under its belt of any IMOCA, and has proven itself to be robust, reliable, and fast in the big stuff. If Herrmann can hang onto the more slippery designs in the forecast lighter early stages<\/a> \u2013 and particularly if the fleet picks up some conventional strong Southern Ocean conditions \u2013 then this boat could be right up there.\r\n\r\nSam Davies\u2019 Initiatives Coeur<\/em><\/strong> had some build teething issues, but with those ironed out Davies seems to be hitting her best form at just the right time.\r\n\r\nSam Goodchild<\/strong> is another \u2018rookie\u2019 who is actually hugely experienced, and has the particular advantage for a Vend\u00e9e first-timer of having already raced in the Southern Ocean in the Class 40s, Ultims and onboard Holcim PRB in The Ocean Race. His Vulnerable<\/strong><\/a> is not a latest generation design, but is Ruyant\u2019s IMOCA from last time. Working with Ruyant, the team made the decision not to make any major changes, hinting at confidence that it is still competitive.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155329\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Nico Lunven and Holcim-PRB could be strong contenders in the 2024 Vend\u00e9e Globe. Photo: Adrien Nivet \/ Polaryse \/ VG2024[\/caption]\r\n\r\nNico Lunven<\/strong> might have a slightly lower profile than some of the solo stars of the IMOCA fleet, but he won two Figaros and has sailed with, or routed for, many top teams. His Holcim-PRB<\/em><\/a> is known to be fast, and though his recent results perhaps don\u2019t reflect it, many of the other sailors rate him highly.\r\n\r\nYannick Bestaven<\/a>'s<\/strong> new Maitre Coq V<\/em> is fairly unproven, but he delivered a surprise win in the last race, having put in a solid performance with high averages, and could do the same once again.\r\n

'Top 10' contenders<\/h2>\r\nThose of you who can count will have worked out that we\u2019ve already picked out 9 boats, and are yet to list our \u2018top 10\u2019 grouping. But assuming that there will be at least some retirements in the race, this sector of the fleet could be incredibly closely fought. They include:\r\n\r\nMaxime Sorel<\/strong>, who has a refined new boat with V&B Monbana Mayenne<\/em>, and a series of top 10 results with it.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155327\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Paul Meilhat's Biotherm<\/em> was thoroughly tested during The Ocean Race. Photo: Qaptur\/VG2024[\/caption]\r\n\r\nPaul Meilhat<\/strong> also has a latest generation IMOCA with Biotherm<\/em>. Although the boat seemed a bit tender during The Ocean Race, its structure has been beefed up and if average conditions are on the lighter side could prove very rapid. Another one that other skippers will be keeping a close eye on.\r\n\r\nThe top boats from the last IMOCA cycle have real potential and many have been smartly reconfigured. Sebastien Simon<\/strong> has the former Ocean Race<\/a> winning boat (ex-11th Hour Racing<\/em><\/a>). Meanwhile Justine Mettreaux<\/strong> was part of that winning team and can take the experience of those ocean miles onto her first Vend\u00e9e with Teamwork Team SNEF<\/em> (which is the former Charal<\/em>).\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155326\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Justine Mettreaux has a fast last generation boat with Teamwork Team SNEF<\/em>\u00a0(ex-Charal<\/em>) and plenty of IMOCA experience in The Ocean Race. Photo: Gauthier Lebec\/VG2024[\/caption]\r\n\r\nClarisse Cremer<\/strong> has had a disrupted campaign<\/a>, but has Dalin\u2019s ex-Apivia<\/em>, which was first around the course last time, prepared with Alex Thomson\u2019s<\/a> team in Gosport. She\u2019s proven repeatedly that she is not to be underestimated, and could definitely be in the front group with L\u2019Occitane en<\/em> Provence<\/a> if it all comes together in time.\r\n\r\nAlan Roura\u2019s Hublot<\/em><\/strong> is the former Hugo Boss<\/em><\/a> from the last race, and he\u2019s made some significant modifications<\/a> to it. Though he's not going into this race with the pressure of expectation, he's hoping to be in the top 10.\r\n\r\nLouis Burton<\/strong><\/a> finished an impressive 3rd in the last race. This time he\u2019s sailing the first \u2018scow\u2019 in the fleet, Sam Manuard\u2019s 2019 design, having identified it as a boat which will suit his hard-pushing style as Bureau Vall\u00e9e<\/em>.\r\n\r\nPip Hare\u2019s Medallia<\/em><\/strong> is the oldest boat of this group, but the 2015-built ex-Banque Populaire<\/em> currently holds the course record, and has been re-optimised<\/a> with a new boat shape and larger foils. Hare is gunning for a top 10<\/a> position and her results show a clear uptick with a 9th in the most recent New York-Les Sables transat.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155335\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Pip Hare's re-optimised Medallia is the current Vend\u00e9e Globe course record holder. Photo: James Tomlinson[\/caption]\r\n

Another 20 boats to go...<\/h2>\r\nThat\u2019s less than half the fleet, and we haven\u2019t even touched on Damien Seguin<\/strong><\/a>, who finished an impressive 7th last time around, followed by Giancarlo Pedote<\/strong> and Benjamin Dutreux<\/strong>, who are also returning.\r\n\r\nOr newcomers like Guirec Soudee<\/strong><\/a>, who has years of adventure sailing experience (most famously with his red hen Monique<\/a>) despite being aged just 31, and will be likely able to handle any damage or crazy conditions this race throws at him.\r\n\r\nThen there\u2019s the \u2018daggerboard\u2019 fleet - which could be a race within a race. Or, if legendary skipper Jean Le Cam<\/strong><\/a> is correct - and the lighter winds hold into the south Atlantic<\/a>- the straight board boats could mix it up with the foilers.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155330\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Jean Le Cam with his new non-foiling IMOCA Armor-Lux. Photo: Marc Agnoly\/IMOCA[\/caption]\r\n\r\nLe Cam is one of two skippers who opted to build a brand new non-foiling boat for this race, believing that the performance advantages simply weren't worth it. As he\u2019s going into his sixth Vend\u00e9e Globe, that\u2019s a lot of experience to discount. Last time around he finished 4th, in a straight board boat, having picked up the shipwrecked Kevin Escoffier mid-race.\r\n\r\nIf that proves anything, it shows that Vend\u00e9e Globe form indicators are only as good as the skipper, the weather, and the many twists of fate this race inevitably deals out.\r\n\r\nWe\u2019ll be following all the way - plus look out for our IMOCA boat tours and exclusive skipper interview videos<\/a>.","excerpt":{"rendered":"

So who will win the 2024 Vend\u00e9e Globe? Spoiler alert: we don\u2019t know\u2028. And that\u2019s not only because of the Vend\u00e9e Globe\u2019s notorious attrition rate (somewhere between 1 in 4 and 1 in 3 entries are statistically likely to fail to complete the course), but because with this year\u2019s record entry of 40 IMOCAs and hugely competitive fleet, even the skippers struggle to work out where they rank against each other. How to pick the top IMOCAs \u201cPreviously in the IMOCA class, you just had to have a reasonable boat. The fleets were so small that if you had a reasonable boat and an okay budget, then you were pretty much guaranteed to be in the top five. \u201cNow with that, you can just be in the top 20,\u201d explains Sam Davies, skipper of Initiatives Coeur, ahead of this year\u2019s start. \u201cIt’s something we’ve worked on, because it’s really hard to know where to expect to be. Sometimes I\u2019d finish a race and I’d feel really happy with the result, and the team would be really frustrated because we weren’t all on the same page.\u201d To help them gauge performance, before every race in the lead up to the Vend\u00e9e Globe, Davies and her team would create a table ranking the boats and skippers against her and her boat. \u201cWe have an open debate between us in the team [and score each column] either +1, 0, or -1. One means the boat is better than my boat. Zero, equal. Minus one, I’m better. And we do both boat and skipper because you can have a really good boat with a less experienced skipper. Then you add the two together and that result is one, zero, or minus one. \u201cAt the end, you have a group that is better, a group that’s equal, and then there’s a group that I should be ahead of.\u201d 40-boat Vend\u00e9e Globe fleet The problem is that if you do that exercise for the Vend\u00e9e Globe itself, even once you\u2019ve ranked all the entries into groups, with a huge fleet of 40 boats each \u2018group\u2019 is so large and evenly matched that they\u2019re simply too hard to split. Recent transatlantic races have been decided by minutes, if not seconds. And that\u2019s with some of the skippers sailing \u2013 relatively \u2013 conservatively in order to secure their Vend\u00e9e Globe qualification miles. So the best we can offer \u2013 and yes, it is a bit of a cop-out \u2013 is to group the fleet. Here\u2019s our best guess at the likely front-runners and races-within-a-race for the 10th edition of the Vend\u00e9e Globe (you can see how well we do on the live tracker): Winning potential Picking a winner is a fool\u2019s errand. As J\u00e9r\u00e9mie Beyou pointed out, whilst many people pegged him and Alex Thomson as among the favourites for the last race, both suffered damage which ended their chances. Meanwhile few commentators picked Yannick Bestaven as a winning bet. Also, as Davies explained, the fastest group used …Continue reading »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1571,"featured_media":155324,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1160,892],"tags":[747,1633,1481],"review_manufacturer":[],"acf":[],"introduction":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155320"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1571"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155320"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":155338,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155320\/revisions\/155338"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/155324"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155320"},{"taxonomy":"review_manufacturer","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/review_manufacturer?post=155320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}