{"id":155302,"date":"2024-11-09T16:41:09","date_gmt":"2024-11-09T16:41:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/?p=155302"},"modified":"2024-11-09T16:41:09","modified_gmt":"2024-11-09T16:41:09","slug":"vendee-globe-forecast-an-easy-start-then-tough-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/vendee-globe\/vendee-globe-forecast-an-easy-start-then-tough-decisions-155302","title":{"rendered":"Vend\u00e9e Globe forecast: an \u2018easy\u2019 start, then tough decisions"},"content":"Past Vend\u00e9e Globe<\/a> races have seen the fleet get an absolute pasting in the early days, thanks to the first hurdle of crossing the Bay of Biscay in November.\r\n\r\nBut this year looks set to be a gentler introduction for the 40 solo skippers<\/a>, with likely just \u00a05-10 knots at the start<\/a>, though there will still be some tough strategic decisions<\/a> early on. IMOCA co-skipper Will Harris shares his expert analysis of the forecast.\r\n\r\nHarris is a key part of Boris Herrmann\u2019s<\/a> Malizia-Explorer<\/em> <\/a>team, and has been co-skipper for the IMOCA<\/a> crewed and double-handed races. For the Vend\u00e9e Globe he is \u2018reserve\u2019 skipper (all the solo skippers have nominated an emergency stand-in), and part of the meteorology team working with Herrmann<\/a> ahead of this year\u2019s round the world race.\r\n\r\nWhile he says he\u2019s been looking at general trends \u2013 such as where different systems are and how they\u2019ve tracking \u2013 all week, it\u2019s only in the final few days that he began running routings in detail with any degree of confidence.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155309\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Weather updates at the final skippers' briefing ahead of the 2024 Vend\u00e9e Globe[\/caption]\r\n

High pressure Vend\u00e9e Globe start<\/h2>\r\nCurrently the forecast is for light winds on start day, Harris explains. \u201cIt's a high pressure situation. We\u2019ve had this massive high pressure over Western Europe the last two or three weeks - bringing nice sun some days, very foggy, but basically not much wind or an offshore wind a lot of the time.\r\n\r\n\u201cAnd we're going to have that all the way to the start and going into the middle of next week. So basically, for the start day, we're going to be right in the centre of the high pressure.\r\n\r\n\u201cThere are a few little occluded fronts and things, which is going to make it very variable. We're not really sure what direction the wind is going to come from, but we're basically looking to pick up a north-easterly flow going into Monday. That's going to take the boats around Finist\u00e8re, where it will have nicely accelerated around that corner.\r\n\r\n\u201cSo the first 18 hours is where we'll see the first differences between the boats, as there\u2019s some strategy calls to make about how to get through the light winds. But the differences won't be too huge in the fleet. I think it's going to be later on, Thursday or Friday, where they\u2019re going to have to start choosing how to deal with the low pressures that are disturbing the tradewinds.\"\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155308\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" The first night is expected to see light conditions. Photo: Antoine Auriol\/Malizia\/VG2024[\/caption]\r\n\r\nThese low pressure systems are further south than usual. \u201cThere are two or three [lows] sitting right over the Azores, which is normally where the high pressure is,\u201d explains Harris. \u201cAnd that's basically disturbing the trade winds.\r\n\r\n\u201cSo you've got to choose: do I try and stick to the African Coast and use what's left to the tradewinds? Or do I punch straight through this light wind and see if I can get a better VMG to end up with a nice reaching angle towards the Equator?\r\n\r\n\u201cAnd so that's the two main points that are there from this [early forecast]. The first 18 hours being very difficult and uncertain, and then later on this much bigger strategy call and the bigger split. But we're going to just have to see how the forecast develops with that \u2013 it'll probably be a call that [the skippers] have to make later on in the race.\u201d\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155316\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Will Harris co-skippering with Boris Herrmann on Malizia-SeaExplorer<\/em> during the double-handed IMOCA Le D\u00e9fi Azimut race.[\/caption]\r\n

Finist\u00e8re acceleration zone<\/h2>\r\nAlthough light winds and flat seas dominate, the fleet could see some stronger conditions around Finist\u00e8re. \u201cFinist\u00e8re is a big acceleration, a big bit of breeze. There's definitely some miles to be made there, and choosing whether you gybe inside or outside the TSS, because it's basically a big curve.\r\n\r\n\u201cIf you come to the inside of the curve, you get a better shift. But equally, it's more manoeuvres, more risk as well. Especially around that corner, they could see 30 knots going into Tuesday and Wednesday.\r\n\r\n\u201cSo you want to keep it simple on that first night and not do 10 manoeuvres and totally exhaust yourself.\u201d\u2028\u2028After Finist\u00e8re, Harris thinks the fleet could compress back up again. \u201cThe bit that\u2019s interesting [in these early forecasts] is that around Finist\u00e8re, you've got a big acceleration, and then they\u2019ll get spat out into not much wind. So everyone will come flying around that corner and then slow down a bit.\r\n\r\n\"Especially if it's still light in the Bay of Biscay, they'll suddenly go from 10 knots to foiling at 25, and they can jump ahead. But then later on, that could not work out like that.\"\r\n\r\nSea state around Finist\u00e8re is also forecast to change, which Harris says could benefit Herrmann on Malizia<\/em>. \u201cThere's a bit of a west swell coming in, which is going against the downwind conditions. It could make it a bit choppy and messy \u2013 but that favours us, really. We love that stuff. The messier the sea state, the better for us.\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155312\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Boris Herrmann's Malizia-SeaExplorer<\/em> is known to favour strong winds and larger sea states. Photo: Jean-Marie Liot\/Malizia\/VG2024[\/caption]\r\n\r\n\u201cThen once they\u2019ve got to that point, I think they'll start really looking, okay, how am I going to get south? Am I going to try and stick a bit to the west, go close to the Azores and pass through the low pressures? Or am I going to sneak down the African Coast and go through the Canary Islands and push along the coast there?\u201d\r\n

Potential splits in the Vend\u00e9e fleet<\/h2>\r\nLight downwind conditions could see the fleet making some big splits and different tactical choices.\r\n\r\n\u201cWith VMG angles, you can really split up the fleet quickly. It only takes one boat to decide to gybe 10 miles later, which is very typical in these boats. You're solo - trying to cover each and every gybe is a lot of work. So they're going to have to stick to their own guns a bit, but maybe one boat gybes 10 miles later and suddenly gains 100 miles,\u201d Harris explains.\r\n\r\n\u201cThe top guys \u2013 Charlie [Dalin<\/a>, Macif<\/em>], Thomas [Ruyant, Vulnerable<\/em>], Nico [Lunven, Holcim-PRB<\/em><\/a>], and Yoann [Richomme, Paprec Ark\u00e9a<\/em>]\u00a0\u2013 they're all going to be really on top of their gybes and making those calls. And Biotherm<\/em> as well. I think Paul [Meilhat]\u2019s boat is very good for this flat water VMG downwind stuff.\r\n\r\n\u201cBut they still might have slightly different ideas of how they're going to do it, and it could open things up.\u201d\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155306\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" Light winds in the early stages could be demanding with manoeuvres and sail changes - Paul Meihat's Biotherm<\/em> is among the boats the may revel in the lighter airs forecast at the start.[\/caption]\r\n\r\nThe light winds could also play into the hands of some of the older designs. \"The conditions in the first hours and days could allow boats with straight daggerboards to be in the match,\" Louis Burton, skipper of Bureau Vall\u00e9e<\/em> pointed out.\r\n

Skippers' relief<\/h2>\r\nThough there is a general feeling of relief among the teams that this edition looks unlikely to see boat-breaking conditions in Biscay, light winds - and particularly poor visibility with fog - will bring its own challenge.\r\n\r\n\"I would have preferred to have a bit more wind and I think everyone is a bit nervous about the fog,\" Medallia<\/em><\/a> skipper Pip Hare said after the final skippers' briefing. \"To be honest all anyone cares about is getting away safely.\"\r\n\r\n[caption id=\"attachment_155310\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"630\"]\"\" There will be some key decisions for the skippers to make as the IMOCAs approach the tradewinds, with low pressure currently forecast around the Azores. Photo: Antoine Auriol\/Malizia\/VG2024[\/caption]\r\n\r\n\u201cEveryone's always going to be happy that we\u2019re not starting in 35 knots in the middle of a front,\" says Harris. \"But I think everyone's keeping their fingers crossed there's going to be at least 10 knots or so \u2013 it's looking very light on some of the forecasts.\r\n\r\n\u201cWhat's really hard is that first night. In lots of transitions, you can really psych yourself out and think: 'Oh, I'm losing miles. This boat's doing 10 knots, I'm only doing 2'.\r\n\r\n\u201cYou\u2019ve just got to remember, it's a round the world race. It's not going to come down to that. Keep the boat in one piece and don't try and gain all your miles back at Finist\u00e8re and push the boat too hard.\r\n\r\n\u201cYour biggest danger is yourself, really, on the first week.\"\r\n\r\nFor more coverage of the Vend\u00e9e Globe check out the Yachting World YouTube<\/a> channel which has exclusive interviews with the skippers and IMOCA boat tours.","excerpt":{"rendered":"

Past Vend\u00e9e Globe races have seen the fleet get an absolute pasting in the early days, thanks to the first hurdle of crossing the Bay of Biscay in November. But this year looks set to be a gentler introduction for the 40 solo skippers, with likely just \u00a05-10 knots at the start, though there will still be some tough strategic decisions early on. IMOCA co-skipper Will Harris shares his expert analysis of the forecast. Harris is a key part of Boris Herrmann\u2019s Malizia-Explorer team, and has been co-skipper for the IMOCA crewed and double-handed races. For the Vend\u00e9e Globe he is \u2018reserve\u2019 skipper (all the solo skippers have nominated an emergency stand-in), and part of the meteorology team working with Herrmann ahead of this year\u2019s round the world race. While he says he\u2019s been looking at general trends \u2013 such as where different systems are and how they\u2019ve tracking \u2013 all week, it\u2019s only in the final few days that he began running routings in detail with any degree of confidence. High pressure Vend\u00e9e Globe start Currently the forecast is for light winds on start day, Harris explains. \u201cIt’s a high pressure situation. We\u2019ve had this massive high pressure over Western Europe the last two or three weeks – bringing nice sun some days, very foggy, but basically not much wind or an offshore wind a lot of the time. \u201cAnd we’re going to have that all the way to the start and going into the middle of next week. So basically, for the start day, we’re going to be right in the centre of the high pressure. \u201cThere are a few little occluded fronts and things, which is going to make it very variable. We’re not really sure what direction the wind is going to come from, but we’re basically looking to pick up a north-easterly flow going into Monday. That’s going to take the boats around Finist\u00e8re, where it will have nicely accelerated around that corner. \u201cSo the first 18 hours is where we’ll see the first differences between the boats, as there\u2019s some strategy calls to make about how to get through the light winds. But the differences won’t be too huge in the fleet. I think it’s going to be later on, Thursday or Friday, where they\u2019re going to have to start choosing how to deal with the low pressures that are disturbing the tradewinds.” These low pressure systems are further south than usual. \u201cThere are two or three [lows] sitting right over the Azores, which is normally where the high pressure is,\u201d explains Harris. \u201cAnd that’s basically disturbing the trade winds. \u201cSo you’ve got to choose: do I try and stick to the African Coast and use what’s left to the tradewinds? Or do I punch straight through this light wind and see if I can get a better VMG to end up with a nice reaching angle towards the Equator? \u201cAnd so that’s the two main points that are there from this [early forecast]. …Continue reading »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1571,"featured_media":155315,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1160,892],"tags":[747,250,1633,1481],"review_manufacturer":[],"acf":[],"introduction":null,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155302"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1571"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155302"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":155319,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155302\/revisions\/155319"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/155315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155302"},{"taxonomy":"review_manufacturer","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.yachtingworld.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/review_manufacturer?post=155302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}